Assessing the impact of pay and financial incentives in improving shortage subject teacher supply

England has been facing a significant teacher supply challenge, marked particularly by undersupply of the maths, physics and chemistry teachers required to deliver a high-quality science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM) education across the country. There has been chronic under-recruitment and higher-than-average leaving rates for maths and science, primarily due to STEM graduates having relatively attractive career options outside of teaching, compared to teachers of other subjects. [Coronavirus Disease 2019] COVID-19 provided a short-term boost to recruitment and retention, due to relatively low levels of hiring and job security in the wider labour market. As teachers continued to be recruited during the pandemic and with the profession being seen as a safe career option, applications to teacher training rose and retention rates were higher. Overall STEM teacher recruitment to initial teacher training (ITT) was 94 per cent in 2020/21, compared to 77 per cent in the previous year. However, since COVID-19 restrictions were lifted during the spring and summer of 2021, the wider labour market has recovered rapidly, eroding the relative attraction of teaching as a career option and therefore making recruitment and retention more challenging again.

In this context, supported by the Gatsby Foundation, we conduct new quantitative research to explore two research questions that are key for informing an appropriate policy response to the challenge of ensuring sufficient teacher supply in the current economic environment: (1) What is the relationship between the level of recruitment to ITT by subject and: (a) the subject-specific financial attractiveness of entering teaching compared to alternative careers; and (b) the state of the wider labour market? (2) Within the expected economic context over the next four years, what are the implications of different teacher pay and financial incentive packages for the supply of STEM teachers?

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