The impact of demographic change on labour supply and economic growth: can APEC meet the challenges ahead?

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies encompass a wide range of socio-economic profiles - poor to rich, young to old, regulated to free market. How economies and regions manage demographic change will define their success in what will be an 'ageing century'. This overview paper on the role of demographic change on labour force and economic growth in APEC uses a supply-side, gross domestic product (GDP) accounting framework to decompose the contribution of population, participation, and productivity to GDP per capita (the 3Ps). The authors use this modelling to examine historic and projected demographic and macro-economic trends to inform policy discussions and decisions. The authors begin by presenting this framework and the central projections. The following sections discuss each of the above-mentioned three contributors to growth in turn. The paper concludes by summarising the findings and policy responses.

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