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Before the [Coronavirus Disease 2019] Covid-19 pandemic, England's school system was facing an increasingly severe challenge of recruiting enough trainees to initial teacher training (ITT) to meet growing teacher demand. The pandemic has had a number of impacts on the ITT sector and on teacher supply more broadly. This report highlights some of the main opportunities and challenges brought by Covid-19, drawing on applications data from the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) and nationally-representative surveys of teachers and senior leaders.

Key findings: (1) The overall number of teacher training applicants is 16 per cent higher than the same time in 2019; (2) Covid-19 has led some schools to reduce or withdraw school-based training placement offers and an overall reduction in placement capacity; (3) Despite a surge in applications to ITT and a likely increase in teacher retention, teacher supply gaps are unlikely to close fully this year. Accounting for increased recruitment and an increase in teacher retention rates, it is likely that trainee numbers in almost all subjects will meet the school system's need for teachers in September 2021; (4) Thanks to flexibilities made by [Department for Education] DfE to the ITT requirements and ITT providers' careful approach of only making offers where placements were arranged, the system looks likely to be able to train the increased number of trainees. However, the squeeze on placement capacity has highlighted a vulnerability that could continue to impact the ITT sector. Mentor capacity in schools is likely to be a key potential limiting factor, particularly as 2021/22 is also the year of the national roll-out of the Early Career Framework (ECF).

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The recruitment, development and retention of teachers and school leaders is a crucial underpinning for a successful education system. However, England's school system faces a substantial and growing challenge of ensuring there are sufficient numbers of high-quality teachers employed in schools. Meeting this supply challenge is necessary for the school system to deliver a high-quality education for all children and young people. [National Foundation for Educational Research's] NFER's annual Teacher Labour Market report aims to monitor the progress the school system is making towards meeting the teacher supply challenge by measuring the key indicators and trends of teacher supply and working conditions. We analyse [Department for Education] DfE census data on teacher recruitment and retention to assess the current state of the teacher labour market. We also present new analysis of the latest data on teachers' working conditions, and how they compare to similar individuals in other professions, from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS).

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This research provides evidence on the long-term effectiveness of bursaries for improving teacher recruitment and retention and their cost effectiveness compared to other policy options. The project, funded by the Gatsby Foundation, uses data from the [Initial Teacher Training] ITT Performance Profiles (ITT-PP) and the School Workforce Census (SWC), to estimate the impact of bursaries on key longer-term teacher outcomes, including qualified teacher status (QTS) achievement, entry into state-sector teaching and retention in the state sector. The research suggests that policymakers have a range of effective tools at their disposal for addressing recruitment and retention, which all show good levels of cost effectiveness, and bursaries are one of them.

Key findings: (1) Bursary increases are associated with increases in recruitment into initial teacher training; (2) Overall, bursary increases are associated with a sustained increase in long-term teacher supply. We find that the additional teachers induced to enter training by a bursary increase tended to complete their training, enter teaching and be retained in teaching at the same rate as other teachers in their cohort; (3) The additional teachers are also more likely to teach in schools that tend to struggle most with filling vacancies, such as schools in London and schools serving disadvantaged communities. Bursaries are therefore an effective policy tool for addressing national teacher shortages and the associated staffing challenges in the most affected schools; and (4) We also find that bursaries offer good cost effectiveness compared to other targeted policy measures such as early career payments, especially where the existing bursary for a subject is low. Our analysis suggests that an additional £100 million spent on bursaries (including the extra indirect costs such as teacher training costs) in shortage subjects would have a similar impact on overall teacher supply compared to same-cost increases in early career payments and pay increases targeted at early career teachers or secondary teachers.

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England has been facing a significant teacher supply challenge, marked particularly by undersupply of the maths, physics and chemistry teachers required to deliver a high-quality science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM) education across the country. There has been chronic under-recruitment and higher-than-average leaving rates for maths and science, primarily due to STEM graduates having relatively attractive career options outside of teaching, compared to teachers of other subjects. [Coronavirus Disease 2019] COVID-19 provided a short-term boost to recruitment and retention, due to relatively low levels of hiring and job security in the wider labour market. As teachers continued to be recruited during the pandemic and with the profession being seen as a safe career option, applications to teacher training rose and retention rates were higher. Overall STEM teacher recruitment to initial teacher training (ITT) was 94 per cent in 2020/21, compared to 77 per cent in the previous year. However, since COVID-19 restrictions were lifted during the spring and summer of 2021, the wider labour market has recovered rapidly, eroding the relative attraction of teaching as a career option and therefore making recruitment and retention more challenging again.

In this context, supported by the Gatsby Foundation, we conduct new quantitative research to explore two research questions that are key for informing an appropriate policy response to the challenge of ensuring sufficient teacher supply in the current economic environment: (1) What is the relationship between the level of recruitment to ITT by subject and: (a) the subject-specific financial attractiveness of entering teaching compared to alternative careers; and (b) the state of the wider labour market? (2) Within the expected economic context over the next four years, what are the implications of different teacher pay and financial incentive packages for the supply of STEM teachers?

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The recruitment, development and retention of teachers and school leaders is a crucial underpinning for a successful education system. Ensuring there are sufficient numbers of high-quality teachers employed in schools is necessary for the school system to deliver a high-quality education for all children and young people, particularly as the Curriculum for Wales is being introduced. This annual Teacher Labour Market in Wales report aims to analyse the state of the Welsh teacher labour market by measuring the key indicators and trends of teacher recruitment and retention. This is the first of three annual reports funded by the Nuffield Foundation, which will track changes over time.

In this report we analyse Welsh Government school census data on teacher recruitment and retention to assess the current state of the teacher labour market. In future years we aim to track what progress the school system is making towards resolving teacher supply issues, and draw comparisons with teacher recruitment and retention trends in England as new comparable school workforce data becomes available for the first time. Our analysis shows that the Welsh school system faces a substantial and growing challenge of ensuring there are sufficient numbers of teachers. The recruitment and retention challenge is most acute in secondary schools, in shortage subjects (such as Welsh, maths, science and modern foreign languages), in Welsh medium schools and in schools in areas with high levels of disadvantage.

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