Search Results

Two stylised facts of the German labour market are that first, the demand for high-skilled labour has been growing rapidly for a number of years and second, the country is facing a particularly strong demographic change with the expected size of the population decreasing rapidly and the average age of the labour force increasing sharply. This has led to a widely discussed fear of 'labour shortages'. One of the reasons often stated in the public debate is that within a given time period many more old individuals are retiring than young individuals are entering the labour market. Although there is a certain logic in this argument, it is only prima facie convincing because firstly, a change in labour demand could counteract this effect and secondly, it is unclear whether - given labour demand for the occupations people retire from - people retiring from the labour market are normally 'replaced' by young cohorts entering the labour market.

Thirdly, even if the size of a cohort differs between generations, it is by no means clear what the effects on labour supply are as, for example, the participation rates may also differ. [The authors] address these issues from a theoretical and empirical perspective. In the theoretical part [the authors] focus on the relationship between vacancies and unemployment (labour-market tightness) and show that it does not always increase with demographic change. In the empirical part, [the authors] analyse how employment is affected over time by different shares of different age cohorts. [The authors] find no evidence that a higher number of retirees in an occupation leads to a higher demand for younger workers. Instead, to a large extent, retirees seem to be 'replaced', if they are replaced at all, by middle-aged cohorts who change occupations. Thus, [the authors] conclude that the interaction between large retiring cohorts and small entering cohorts within occupations is less direct than is suggested in the public debate.

Published abstract. Show less

Germany's labor market responded only mildly to the Great Recession. Important factors for this development include the strong economic position due to recent labor market reforms, the crisis affecting mainly export-oriented companies, the extension of short-time work, time buffers due to working time accounts, the behavior of social partners, and automatic stabilizers. We emphasize the important interaction between short-time work and long-term shortages of skilled workers in sectors particularly affected by the crisis. Although Germany's experience is in stark contrast to the United States, we identify and discuss common challenges at the center of the future jobs debate.

Published abstract. Show less

Skilled labor is a key input to the innovation process. A shortage in supply of skilled labor may hence impede innovation activities, resulting in lower productivity gains. While governments are concerned about these likely negative impacts, there is only limited empirical evidence whether and to what extent labor shortage affects innovation activities. The paper addresses this question using panel data from three waves (2017 to 2019) of the German innovation survey. We measure labor shortage by job openings that could not be filled at all, not with the required skills or only with significant delay, distinguishing different skill levels. We analyze whether labor shortage resulted in stopping or abandoning of innovation projects. Endogeneity issues are tackled by instrumental variable estimation techniques. Our results show that innovative firms are more likely to be subject to skill shortage, whereas skill shortage induces the cancelation of innovation projects. Effects are stronger for labor shortage related to professional occupations and less for academic qualifications.

Published abstract. Show less

This study investigates labour force access to adult education and skills development programs in [British Columbia] BC. The goal of the research is to identify the most effective way for BC's provincial government to increase the skills of the labour force as a means to decrease the impacts of anticipated labour and skills shortages. Using a case study analysis, four policy options are identified, including a Provincial Workplace Training Fund, Training Tax Credits, the [One] Per Cent Law and Adult Basic Education. Each policy option is subsequently evaluated against selected criteria. Evaluation of the policy options leads to a number of recommendations including the simultaneous implementation of two policy alternatives.

Published abstract. Show less

Over the next 50 years, population aging will contribute to a dramatic decline in the European working age population. One important question for policy makers is to what extent an increase in labour force participation of migrants, their descendants, and women can compensate for the decline in labour supply. Thus it is relevant to know more about the factors which can encourage participation of these groups. In this report [the authors] examine the employment of second generation (children of immigrants) Turkish and young adult women from the majority population. [The authors] focus on the Turkish group since it is the largest single origin country group who also settled in different European countries allowing for examining differences among the second generation across countries of residence by using unique data allowing for this for the first time.

This report covers four European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, France, and Sweden) in which the largest share of the total Turkish population in Europe live. [The authors] give special attention to the effect of motherhood on employment. [The] findings show that policy and institutions matter for the employment of all women in society, irrespective of migrant origin. Still, levels of employment are lower for the Turkish second generation compared to women from the majority group in all countries. Being a mother has a negative impact on employment, but [the authors] do not find this association to vary by origin. Furthermore [the authors] find clear differences across the countries studied but again these differences are similar for women of the majority population and those of Turkish origin. Although [the authors] are unable to pinpoint the exact policies and institutional arrangements it seems to be the case that these are related to policies across the life course starting from educational to family policies. Findings make clear that policymakers must give special attention to the unique economic position and potential of women in general and the growing share of children of immigrants among them, whose employment behaviours will be essential to bolstering the European labour force in the future.

Published abstract. Show less

Labour shortages or mismatches are a major factor inhibiting investment and economic development across [Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation] APEC. In order to establish an appropriate regional response to the supply of skilled labour it is necessary to adopt a comprehensive strategy for monitoring labour force demand and supply across the APEC region. This report outlines the reasoning.

Abstract from publisher's website. Show less

The Temporary Foreign Worker Program is legislated through the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act and Immigration and Refugee Protection Regulations. One of the key objectives of the program is to provide Canadian employers with access to temporary foreign workers when qualified Canadians or permanent residents are not available. This evaluation covers the portion of the program that is administered by Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) for the period from 2011 to 2018. However, the most recent data is provided where relevant. It focusses on the following issues: labour market shortages and gaps; employers' efforts to hire resident labour before applying to the program; and impact of the program on wages and displacement.

Key findings include: (1) The program plays a crucial role in helping Canadian employers temporarily fill different types of labour needs that are most commonly recurrent and that employers prove unable to meet using other means; (2) The program helps protect jobs for Canadians and permanent residents, and can contribute to job creation and economic growth in some sectors; (3) Overall, there is no evidence pointing to a risk for job displacement or wage suppression at the national level in Canada. In 2019, temporary foreign workers represented only 0.49 per cent of the total labour force in Canada. There is, however, evidence of varying factors affecting employment and working conditions in localized labour markets. This points to some risk of job displacement or wage suppression in some specific sectors, occupations and regions; (4) Important challenges related to the Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) process and related requirements may hinder the effectiveness of the program for some program users; (5) Administrative and financial barriers associated with using the program may explain why some employers do not use the program. It should be noted that other comparable employers in similar situations use the program; and (6) The program contributes towards ensuring that qualified Canadians or permanent residents are considered first for current job opportunities.

Edited excerpts from publications. Show less

In many countries, training subsidies and levy schemes are used to tackle the problem that company-based provision of apprenticeship training is low. In this paper, we consider the introduction of a levy scheme in the care sector and estimate the causal effect exerted by substantial redistribution of care worker apprenticeship costs on the training activity of care facilities. We exploit the fact that the underlying apprenticeship levy was introduced across the German federal states at different points in time. For ambulatory care, we find a positive effect on the probability of hiring new apprentices and on the number of new apprentices. Inpatient care facilities react only at the intensive margin. This suggests that the positive effects in this sector are driven mainly by facilities that have already provided training slots before the reform.

Published abstract. Show less

Career and technical education (CTE) continues to face an annual shortage of qualified teachers in the profession. This shortage has caused an increase in the use of alternative certification/licensure pathways across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. These alternative pathways are highly divergent from state to state. Limited research has investigated the alternative certification/licensure requirements that may contribute to CTE teacher shortage. This predictive correlational study looked to determine if CTE alternative certification/ licensure requirements could predict CTE teacher shortages. It was found that CTE alternative certification/licensure requirements were not a good predictor of CTE teacher shortage.

Published abstract. Show less

The results of the third wave of the qualifications and occupational field projections conducted under the joint lead management of the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) provide an overview of the expected development of the German labour market up until the year 2030. Assuming that previous patterns of behaviour will continue, it is revealed that shortages in the medium qualifications area will persist despite the fact that increased immigration has been taken into account compared to the first two waves. Even wage adjustments included in the modelling for the first time are unable to compensate for occupational bottlenecks. The reasons for this are that existing structural differences in remuneration between occupations cannot be overcome and labour supply by occupation learned cannot work in every other occupation.

Excerpt from publication. Show less