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Two stylised facts of the German labour market are that first, the demand for high-skilled labour has been growing rapidly for a number of years and second, the country is facing a particularly strong demographic change with the expected size of the population decreasing rapidly and the average age of the labour force increasing sharply. This has led to a widely discussed fear of 'labour shortages'. One of the reasons often stated in the public debate is that within a given time period many more old individuals are retiring than young individuals are entering the labour market. Although there is a certain logic in this argument, it is only prima facie convincing because firstly, a change in labour demand could counteract this effect and secondly, it is unclear whether - given labour demand for the occupations people retire from - people retiring from the labour market are normally 'replaced' by young cohorts entering the labour market.

Thirdly, even if the size of a cohort differs between generations, it is by no means clear what the effects on labour supply are as, for example, the participation rates may also differ. [The authors] address these issues from a theoretical and empirical perspective. In the theoretical part [the authors] focus on the relationship between vacancies and unemployment (labour-market tightness) and show that it does not always increase with demographic change. In the empirical part, [the authors] analyse how employment is affected over time by different shares of different age cohorts. [The authors] find no evidence that a higher number of retirees in an occupation leads to a higher demand for younger workers. Instead, to a large extent, retirees seem to be 'replaced', if they are replaced at all, by middle-aged cohorts who change occupations. Thus, [the authors] conclude that the interaction between large retiring cohorts and small entering cohorts within occupations is less direct than is suggested in the public debate.

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Theoretical arguments and previous country-level evidence indicate that immigrants are more fluid than natives in responding to changing labor shortages across countries, skill-groups or industries. The diversity across [European Union] EU member states enables [the authors] to test this hypothesis across various institutional, economic and policy contexts. Drawing on the [European Union Labour Force Survey] EU LFS and [European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions] EU SILC datasets [the authors] study the relationship between residual wage premia as a measure of labor shortages in different skill-industry-country cells and the shares of migrants and natives working in these cells. [The authors] find that immigrants' responsiveness to labor market shortages exceeds that of natives in the [European Union 15] EU15, in particular in member states with higher unemployment rates, higher levels of (recent) immigration, and more open immigration and integration policies; but also those with barriers to citizenship acquisition or family reunification. Whereas higher welfare expenditures seem to exert a lock-in effect, a comparison across different types of welfare states indicates that institutional complementarities neutralize that effect.

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'Bottleneck vacancies' refers to vacancies for occupations which are considered to be in short supply. They are found not only in high-skilled occupations, such as [information technology] IT, scientific, engineering or medical professionals, but also in skilled and low-skilled manual occupations. The first mainly arise from skills deficits, but the latter are more due to recruitment and retention problems related to working conditions and pay. The study compares shortage and surplus occupations, based on data from the Public Employment Services [PES] of the EU, Norway and Iceland, and the Labour Force Survey [LFS].

The analysis indicated a considerable degree of overlap between the shortage occupations identified by most PES and those identified in the analyses of LFS data in the most countries. A total of 16 of the top 29 occupations on the PES list were also among the top 30 occupations on the LFS list. The results of a range of different comparisons between the PES shortage and surplus occupations, and the shortage and surplus occupations produced by the LFS analyses, are outlined in the report. By utilising all of the findings, the report also outlines a methodology to assist [the European network of employment services] EURES in identifying shortage and surplus occupations throughout the European labour market.

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The objective of this study is to implement Article 30 of [European Employment Services] EURES Regulation (EU) 2016/589 and identify the surplus and shortage occupations including their gender composition, their share of vulnerable groups, their regional distribution and their potential to match shortages in an occupation with surpluses in the same occupation across frontiers and regions. The study offers details of surplus and shortage occupations by using information provided by the EURES National Coordination Offices (NCOs) and an analysis of the European Labour Force Survey (LFS).

Only twenty-four different occupations were classified as both shortage and surplus occupations by the NCOs. The list of twenty-four occupations includes occupations from the professional, craft and clerical categories. The analysis of LFS data showed that significant gender segmentation was associated with both shortage and surplus occupations identified by the NCOs. For example, males dominate STEM (i.e. science, technology, engineering and mathematics) related occupations where there are extensive shortages, while females dominate the clerical group, which contains many surplus occupations. Both the list of surplus occupations and the list of shortage occupations, identified by the PES/national sources, contained a significant number of occupations which have a large share of unqualified workers. This may reflect the fact that many labour markets in the EU are approaching the status of 'full employment' and jobseekers in these labour markets have a greater range of choice of where to work.

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This is the third report in a series of annual reports which provide an analysis of shortage and, since 2016, surplus occupations as identified by the European [Public Employment Services] PES. Each report has a somewhat different focus. The focus of this report is to ultimately draw on the findings in the whole series and create a model which can accurately and comprehensively identify imbalances and cross-border matching possibilities in a manner which is of practical use to [European Employment Services] EURES and the national [vocational education and training] VET authorities in the [European Economic Area] EEA countries. Facilitating the matching of skills and jobs across borders in the EU contributes to the better functioning of labour markets in the EU, as pursued by the EURES network. Supporting the identification of skills shortages and the better matching of skills of job-seekers with the needs of employers is also among the objectives of the European Network of Public Employment Services (PES Network). A total of thirty-three PES were asked to submit data on shortage and surplus occupations. These PES included the national PES from twenty-seven EU Member States and the three regional PES from Belgium. As in the case of the studies in 2015 and 2016, the national PES of Iceland, and Norway were also requested to submit data, while the national PES of Switzerland was included for the first time in 2017. Based on the findings from the three bottleneck studies undertaken to date, a model for the gathering of data on shortages and surpluses is proposed.

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The general objective of the paper is to provide strong statistical evidence that in Egypt for at least 30 years - but probably for an even longer period - the rate of economic growth requested to absorb the generations that will exit the education and vocational training system is not attainable, and migration out of the country will be necessary to avoid an unsustainable level of poverty and unemployment, and all the socioeconomic consequences that would derive from such a situation. At the same time, an increasing number of countries in Europe, Asia, North America and South America will be characterized by an increasing structural shortage of labour supply that for its nature and dimension cannot be solved by market mechanisms, by active labour policies, or by presidential decrees. The conclusion is that Egypt (as well as other developing countries) and European Union countries have a common interest to join forces, although for differing motives, in coorganizing and co-managing migration flows, in the amount and typology needed. This would represent the most effective antidote to irregular migration flows pulled by the correct perception that the destination countries need foreign labour.

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This paper provides a descriptive analysis of the demand for high-skilled workers using a new firm data set, the IZA International Employer Survey 2000. Our results suggest that while workers from [European Union] EU-countries are mainly complements to domestic high-skilled workers, workers from non-EU countries are hired because of a shortage of high-skilled labour. The paper, furthermore, provides a short description of recent German policy initiatives regarding the temporary immigration of high-skilled labour. In view of our descriptive results these temporary immigration policies seem, however, to satisfy only partly the demand of firms interested in recruiting foreign high-skilled workers. A more comprehensive immigration policy covering also the permanent immigration of high-skilled workers appears to be necessary.

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This bulletin is the fourth annual report by the Expert Group on Future Skills Needs (EGFSN) examining skills and occupational trends in Ireland. The bulletin outlines key labour market trends in order to assist policy formulation in the areas of employment, education and training, and immigration. It also aims to provide information relating to developments in the Irish labour market for students, career guidance advisors, and other interested parties. The statistical analysis covers the period 2002-2007, which is the most recent detailed quantitative occupational information available. For each occupation covered in the bulletin, key statistics relating to the supply and demand of skills are examined, including its employment profile and recent employment trends. The bulletin has two main purposes; to provide a statistical record of the employment data for all main occupations in the economy and to draw on this data, and other qualitative information, to identify any shortages.

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This annual report on skill shortages and surpluses in Europe covers the period 2019-2020, during which the European labour market was strongly impacted by the [Coronavirus Disease 2019] COVID-19 pandemic. It includes a preliminary analyses of the impact of that pandemic on skill shortages. The findings give rise to an important recommendation in this report. There is an urgent need to comprehensively inform job-seekers of the skills and knowledge which are associated with both good, and poor employment prospects. The findings of this study provide evidence that some graduates are pursuing disciplines (sociology, journalism) where there is intense competition for jobs, that not enough suitably qualified young people are pursuing apprenticeships in engineering or construction, and that many female workers are vulnerable to becoming unemployed.

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Group 1 metal and chemical industries formed the essential suppliers of British war materials during [World War Two] WW2. Their industrial sectors covered metal manufacture, general and electrical engineering, vehicle production, aircraft production, shipbuilding, metal goods, chemicals and explosives, and scientific instruments. Due mainly to almost 4 million men joining the armed forces, acute labour shortages necessitated women's recruited in large numbers. Women workers accounted for 16 per cent of total Group 1 employment in 1939 rising to a peak of 37 per cent in 1943. We use Ministry of Labour statistics on total annual numbers of female and male employees between 1937 and 1960. We examine in detail women's recruitment, training, skill growth as well as firms' radical changes to production methodologies to accommodate lower average women's skills. We compare female and male employment during the wartime transition period 1944 to 1947, followed by the period 1948 to 1960. Explanations are given for the decline and rise of female fortunes in the two periods. The employment data allow us to compare women's war-time and peace-time activities at industrial section-levels - e.g. repair of aircraft, iron and steel melting, explosives manufacture. The analysis includes wartime metal working data of the Engineering Employers' Federation (EEF). This allows us to widen our analysis. Among other features we use (1) female/male pay differentials to proxy the growth of women's skill attainments, and (2) differentiate between piecework and timework to compare employment advantages of incentivised payments contracts versus fixed short-run wage contracts.

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