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We use a unique set of linked administrative data sets to explore the determinants of persistence and academic success in university. The explanatory power of high school grades greatly dominates that of other variables such as university program, gender, and neighbourhood and high school characteristics. Indeed, high school and neighbourhood characteristics, such as average standardized test scores for a high school or average neighbourhood income, have weak links with success in university.

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[The authors note that] jobs in the fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) are often predicted to account for a large share of job creation, and policy makers often encourage student enrollment in the STEM fields. Preparation for a STEM career requires students both to take the appropriate courses in high school and to apply to and register in a postsecondary STEM program. This paper examines a series of questions concerning persistence on the STEM path in Ontario, Canada high schools. The study is based on two administrative data sets on the high school performance of individual students, as well as the university programs they apply to and in which they register. The data track the students for five years and also include information on gender, birth year, home postal code and place of birth. The postal code allowed for linking to neighbourhood characteristics from the 2006 census, such as family income.

The greatest predictor of whether students stay on a STEM path is academic performance. Non-academic factors, such as gender, place of birth, average family income and other neighbourhood characteristics, play predictable but smaller roles in application and registration decisions. The authors of the study argue that more research and better data are needed to understand the mix of individual, home and school factors that ultimately account for success in high school science and math.

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