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The ageing society has been attracting the attention of policy makers in Australia and in many other countries. This paper considers the labour market for the traditional trades in Australia over the next 40 years and investigates whether the ageing society will pose a workforce problem. The broad conclusion is that the ageing society will significantly impact on the size of the potential trades workforce, but that this is unlikely to result in shortages. Rather, any shortage is more likely to occur if the trades lose their attractiveness relative to other occupations. Moreover, the age distribution of the trades workforce will remain largely unaltered. Show less

Vocational education and training (VET) has been seen to be an important element of school education for some time now. More recently, school-based apprentices and trainees have been given more prominence as an element of VET in Schools, partly as a response to skill shortages in a wide range of areas. The purpose of this short paper is to provide data on school-based apprentices and trainees to enable a judgement to be made about how this policy push is unfolding. After providing some context on the policy environment relevant to school-based apprenticeships and traineeships, this paper provides data on how many and what areas are covered, and goes on to look at attrition and completion rates. To provide a comparison group, data on apprenticeships and traineeships among young people are also given, noting that they form a very important entry point into the labour market for a large proportion of young people. The study found that despite a concerted policy push, the number of school-based apprentices and trainees is small and highly concentrated in Queensland and Victoria, among retail and hospitality training packages, and at the certificates I and II level. Attrition is lower among school-based than all young apprentices and trainees, both within the first six months and year, and at both certificate I and II and certificate III and above levels. With regard to the proportion completing their training, completion rates for certificates I and II are higher for school-based contracts than for all young apprentices and trainees, but substantially lower for certificates III and above. Completion rates in hairdressing, metal and engineering, and automotive certificates III and above are particularly low among school-based apprentices and trainees. Show less

Skill shortages in the trades are of growing concern as Australian industry emerges from the global financial crisis. Although such shortages are often attributed to the inability of the training system to supply enough skilled tradespersons, they are just as much affected by the rate at which individuals leave their occupations. In this paper, using professional occupations as comparators, the authors investigate attrition in the trades and the extent to which this is affected by good or bad economic times. They also ponder the question of whether a trade is a good start to a career by tracking the occupational destination of those who exit their trades. The report concludes that attrition in the trades is no higher than in the professions; the rate of leaving particular occupations may vary, but overall the results between the two are very similar. The economic climate also makes little difference to the attrition rate. Show less

As part of the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) work on skills, there has been a policy push to increase the number of people completing higher-level vocational education and training (VET) qualifications: diplomas and advanced diplomas. The foundation for this paper was a set of projections prepared by the Centre for the Economics of Education and Training (CEET) which pointed to a significant shortfall in people with diploma and advanced diploma-level qualifications in 2016. The paper outlines recent trends in the provision of these qualifications; overall there has been virtually no growth over the period 2003-07, with growth in some areas offset by declines in others. It also looks at how those with diplomas and advanced diplomas are faring in the labour market. The picture is rather mixed, suggesting that people with diplomas and advanced diplomas fare, on average, better than those with other vocational qualifications or no post-school qualifications, but face severe competition from degree holders and others who have obtained skills through experience. Show less

In this nine minute interview, Steve Davis talks with Tom Karmel about the report 'Attrition in the trades' [available in VOCEDplus at TD/TNC 104.36]. This report investigates attrition in the trades by comparing the rate at which tradespeople leave their occupation with that of professionals. It also determines whether attrition is influenced by economic conditions, and if a trade can provide a good start to a career in the professions. The report concludes that attrition in the trades is no higher than in the professions; the rate of leaving particular occupations may vary, but overall the results between the two are very similar. The economic climate also makes little difference to the attrition rate.

Published abstract. Show less

The Commonwealth government created the National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce to investigate the extent to which skills shortages might impact on the development of the resources sector. In particular, the taskforce’s major responsibilities were to: examine the scope and timing of major resources projects; analyse the expected demand for labour and consider supply issues; and develop a plan to address labour and skills shortage issues in the sector. To assist the taskforce the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) was asked to construct projections of the number of tradespeople for the period 2010-2020 at a detailed level and by region. The projections are based on earlier work by Karmel and Ong (2007) that takes a supply based approach. It applies historical apprenticeship commencement rates to population projections. The model also incorporates assumptions about attrition, again based on historical experience. Three sets of parameters are used, all based on historical experience and reflecting ‘good’ and ‘bad’ labour market conditions. The variation between scenarios illustrates the imprecision of these types of exercises and the ability of the labour market and training system to respond to changes in economic conditions. These projections relate to trades as a whole. Therefore it is necessary to relate them to the resources sector. To do this tables are included showing the distribution of trades employment and apprentices across the various industries in the resources sector. In this context it should be noted that the resources sector is a relatively small employer of tradespeople, and an even smaller employer of trade apprentices.

Excerpt from publication. Show less

This paper was prepared for the Australian Government's Natural Resources Sector Employment Taskforce, which was created to investigate the extent to which skill shortages might impact on the development of the resources sector. It applies historical apprenticeship commencement rates to population projections to provide an estimate of the number of tradespeople likely to be working in the resources sector between 2010-20 at a detailed level and by region. Analysis found that if there is to be a lesson to be learnt from this exercise, it is that constraints to the resources sector are much more likely to be inadequate physical infrastructure (roads, railways and ports) than insufficient skilled trade labour: labour is relatively mobile, and the resources sector is a relatively small employer. On the other hand, demand for labour for resources projects tends to be very 'lumpy' and timing will always be an issue. Show less

This paper was presented to a meeting of the Wellington Exchange, an international group of higher education officials, in December 2008. One of the topics of the meeting was the issue of possible skills shortages emerging as a result of demographic trends, with the ageing of the population of developed countries. The paper argues that this is not an issue about which we need to be alarmist and that there is little evidence of impending skills shortages. While the labour market of the future will favour the highly skilled, there has been a significant increase in the proportion of the workforce with a degree, and graduate salaries have been increasing at a very modest rate. This is not to say that there will be no skills shortages in specific areas, and relative wages and starting salaries should be monitored. The paper concludes that the business cycle could have a much more dramatic effect on the demand for skills than demographic trends. Show less

Predicting the future is a mug's game. There are too many unknowns and many ways of achieving a particular outcome. However, it is useful to put some sort of structure on the notion of skill requirements and to think about the likely effects of trends that we are confident will occur. The paper discusses a 'market segmentation' approach to student demand and then considers a number of trends that will impact on that demand.

Published abstract. Show less

This paper considers three aspects of the contribution of vocational education and training (VET) to the labour market: (1) the relationship between their training and the occupations VET graduates work in; (2) the extent to which the qualified proportion of the workforce has increased; and (3) the link between VET and skills acquisition. Some thoughts are aired on the implications of the economic slowdown for VET. There is concern about possible skills shortages emerging when the economy moves into a recovery phase. However, this is more an issue for the trades than for most other occupations. A number of reasons can be offered here: trade employment is very cyclical; trade training takes a long time; and apprentices (mostly young men) are the main source of entry into trades. Other occupations are better placed because the link between training and the occupation is looser and the recruitment pool is much larger. Show less