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Young people's aspirations and their occupational outcomes

This article examines the occupational aspirations of 15-year olds. [The authors] first determine the drivers of oc... Show more
This article examines the occupational aspirations of 15-year olds. [The authors] first determine the drivers of occupational aspirations before comparing aspirations with actual employment outcomes a decade later. Whilst actual jobs held at age 25 years do not quite meet young people's initial aspirations, they compare favourably with the overall job distribution of the Australian workforce, particularly for young women. It is suggested that these positive outcomes reflect the higher education levels of young cohorts, compared to older ones. One likely reason why young women exceed young men regarding occupational status is the higher proportion of women completing university studies.
Published abstract reprinted by permission of the copyright owner. Show less

Authors: Gemici, Sinan; Bednarz, Alice; Karmel, Tom

Date: 2014

Geographic subjects: Australia; Oceania

Resource type: Article

Journal title: Australian economic review

Subjects: Youth; Employment; Career development ... [+] Show more
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Responsiveness: do universities respond to student demand?

This paper presents the findings of an investigation into university responsiveness to student demand at both an ag... Show more
This paper presents the findings of an investigation into university responsiveness to student demand at both an aggregate level and the broad field of study with the conclusion that universities exhibit some degree of flexibility. The chapters are: Introduction; Student demand; Applications, offers and enrolments; Demand and supply by field of study; Conclusion. Show less

Authors: Li, Jianke; Karmel, Tom; Maclachlan, Maureen

Date: 2000

Geographic subjects: Oceania; Australia

Resource type: Government report or paper

Series name: Occasional paper series

Subjects: Participation; Students; Providers of education and training ... [+] Show more
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Learning from successful skills development systems: lessons from Australia

This article describes the main institutional features of Australia's [technical and vocational education and train... Show more
This article describes the main institutional features of Australia's [technical and vocational education and training] TVET sector, focussing particularly on the qualifications framework, how it relates to the labour market, and the role of industry. It also looks briefly at two current policy challenges for Australia. Seeking lessons for other countries in the Asia Pacific region, it discusses the importance of context, particularly the size and structure of the economy, and notes that TVET can be judged to be effective as an investment if it leads to employment and better-paying jobs.
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Authors: Karmel, Tom

Date: 2014

Geographic subjects: Australia; Oceania; Asia

Resource type: Article

Journal title: Prospects: quarterly review of comparative education

Subjects: Providers of education and training; Vocational education and training; Qualifications ... [+] Show more
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Interview with Tom Karmel, Erica Smith and Damian Oliver on 'Insights from research into apprenticeships'

In this 30 minute podcast, Steve Davis talks with Tom Karmel, Erica Smith and Damian Oliver on insights from resear... Show more
In this 30 minute podcast, Steve Davis talks with Tom Karmel, Erica Smith and Damian Oliver on insights from research into apprenticeships. Interested in the story behind the numbers, Tom discusses the findings from his work on individual completion rates that show occupation and employers' size matters, with the implication being that the relationship between employer and apprentice is critical. Erica talks about the all too often unspoken expectations of apprentices and employers: the psychological contract. She finds that writing down these expectations at the start of an apprenticeship does help all parties. Damian examines whether pre-apprenticeship programs deliver on their promise of improved retention rates and finds their impact varies by occupation and prior education level. Implications for policy-makers and training providers are drawn out throughout the podcast. Show less

Authors: Karmel, Tom; Smith, Erica; Oliver, Damian; Davis, Steve

Date: 2011

Geographic subjects: Australia; Oceania

Resource type: Webinar or podcast

Subjects: Research; Apprenticeship; Statistics ... [+] Show more
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Labour demand and educational expansion

Education levels in the workforce increased substantially over the 1980s and 1990s, a trend that was expected to co... Show more
Education levels in the workforce increased substantially over the 1980s and 1990s, a trend that was expected to continue as rising school retention rates and increasing numbers of tertiary education graduates fed into the workforce. Simple economic analysis suggested that the increase in qualification levels must have occurred either because the demand for or supply of places at education institutions had increased. Supply of education places, at least in Australia, was less amenable to analysis because of its dominance by the government. However, analysis of changes in the structure of labour demand gave some insight into why there had been such an expansion in education.
This paper looks at shifts in labour demand as reflected in changes in the occupational structures. [The authors] then find that the occupational structure has changed in a way which is most favourable to the most highly qualified individuals and least favourable to those with the poorest qualifications. Changes in relative earnings across education levels, suggesting that labour demand has increasingly favoured educated workers, are also discussed. However, these changes cannot explain the whole of the increase in education levels.
Edited excerpts from publication reprinted by permission of the copyright owner. Show less

Authors: Karmel, Tom

Date: 1997

Geographic subjects: Australia; Oceania

Resource type: Article

Journal title: Economic papers: a journal of applied economics and policy

Subjects: Labour market; Qualifications; Outcomes ... [+] Show more
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2016 National Aged Care Workforce Census and Survey: the aged care workforce, 2016

This is a report on the findings of the 2016 National Aged Care Workforce Census and Survey (NACWCS) conducted by t... Show more
This is a report on the findings of the 2016 National Aged Care Workforce Census and Survey (NACWCS) conducted by the National Institute of Labour Studies, on behalf of the Department of Health. It is the fourth report in the series (previous reports were in 2003, 2007, and 2012 [report indexed in VOCEDplus at TD/TNC 111.1075]. The 2016 report contains information about the size and composition of the workforce, training and education, the characteristics of aged care workers and the organisations in which they work, experiences of working in the sector, and factors related to staff recruitment and retention.
Abstract from publisher's website. Show less

Authors: Mavromaras, Kostas G.; Knight, Genevieve; Isherwood, Linda; Crettenden, Angela ... [+] Show more

Date: 2017

Geographic subjects: Australia; Oceania

Resource type: Industry information

Subjects: Industry; Labour market; Demographics ... [+] Show more
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Will we run out of young men?: implications of the ageing of the population for the trades in Australia

The ageing society has been attracting the attention of policy makers in Australia and in many other countries. Thi... Show more
The ageing society has been attracting the attention of policy makers in Australia and in many other countries. This paper considers the labour market for the traditional trades in Australia over the next 40 years and investigates whether the ageing society will pose a workforce problem. The broad conclusion is that the ageing society will significantly impact on the size of the potential trades workforce, but that this is unlikely to result in shortages. Rather, any shortage is more likely to occur if the trades lose their attractiveness relative to other occupations. Moreover, the age distribution of the trades workforce will remain largely unaltered. Show less

Authors: Karmel, Tom; Ong, Koon

Date: 2007

Geographic subjects: Oceania; Australia

Resource type: Report, paper or authored book

Subjects: Workforce development; Policy; Skills and knowledge ... [+] Show more
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The likelihood of completing a VET qualification: a model-based approach

This paper estimates the completion rate of VET course enrolments with a mathematical modelling approach in order t... Show more
This paper estimates the completion rate of VET course enrolments with a mathematical modelling approach in order to fill a gap in performance measures for the sector. The technique used is to track all VET course enrolments within a three-year window, centred on the year of interest. Then, using an absorbing Markov chain model for a VET course enrolment, to estimate the proportion of VET course enrolments commencing in the year of interest that will eventually be completed. This approach allows an estimate of the completion rate without the necessity to track course enrolments longitudinally over a long period of time. Course enrolments at certificate III level had the highest rate of completion at 33.5 per cent compared with other qualification levels. One of the distinctive characteristics of the VET sector is that many students wish to learn specific skills and have no intention of completing a full qualification. For these students a more sensible measure of success is the proportion of modules passed (the load pass rate). Overall, the load pass rate of 2005 enrolments was 79.1 per cent. Show less

Authors: Mark, Kevin; Karmel, Tom

Date: 2010

Geographic subjects: Australia; Oceania

Resource type: Report, paper or authored book

Subjects: Vocational education and training; Skills and knowledge; Qualifications ... [+] Show more
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What about diplomas?

In this paper, we put diplomas under the microscope, and look at what they are, who does them, how numbers are tren... Show more
In this paper, we put diplomas under the microscope, and look at what they are, who does them, how numbers are trending, and how outcomes have fared. Diplomas have an important role as the highest level of qualification offered in [vocational education and training] VET. They are a very diverse group of qualifications and the student body is also diverse, covering all age groups and all educational backgrounds - from not having completed year 12 to already having a diploma or higher qualification, however the provision of government funded diplomas has declined very significantly. If we exclude health and education, the number of commencements has declined by around 50 per cent between 2004 and 2020. We will attempt to provide an explanation of these very significant changes. The most obvious one is that higher education has expanded at VET's expense, and in many fields the higher education expansion is mirrored by VET contraction.
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Authors: Karmel, Tom

Date: 2022

Geographic subjects: Australia; Oceania

Resource type: Report, paper or authored book

Subjects: Vocational education and training; Qualifications; Students ... [+] Show more
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The impact of wages and the likelihood of employment on the probability of completing an apprenticeship or traineeship

This occasional paper looks at how the probability of getting a job, in addition to wages, impacts on completion ra... Show more
This occasional paper looks at how the probability of getting a job, in addition to wages, impacts on completion rates. It finds that for trade apprentices the premium (or extra wage completing an apprenticeship brings) attached to becoming a tradesperson is a significant factor, whereas for non-trade trainees the training wage matters more. It also finds that the probability of employment for an apprentice or trainee on completion is greater than if they drop out; this particularly affects completion rates for trades and females in non-trade occupations. Finally, the economic downturn significantly increased the attractiveness of apprenticeships and traineeships. Show less

Authors: Karmel, Tom; Mlotkowski, Peter

Corporate authors: National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER)

Date: 2011

Geographic subjects: Australia; Oceania

Resource type: Report, paper or authored book

Series name: NCVER occasional paper

Subjects: Employment; Economics; Apprenticeship ... [+] Show more

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