Search Results

This paper contains a survey of the recent literature devoted to the returns to schooling within a dynamic structural framework. I present a historical perspective on the evolution of the literature, from early static models set in a selectivity framework (Willis and Rosen, 1979) to the recent literature, stimulated by Keane and Wolpin (1997), and which uses stochastic dynamic programming techniques. After reviewing the literature thoroughly, I compare the structural approach with the IV (experimental) approach. I present their commonalities and I also discuss their fundamental differences. To get an order of magnitude, most structural estimates reported for the US range between 4% and 7% per year. On the other hand, IV estimates between 10% and 15% per year are often reported. The discrepancy prevails even when comparable (if not identical) data sets are used. The discussion is focused on understanding this divergence. The distinction between static and dynamic model specifications is a recurrent theme in the analysis. I argue that the distinction between the IV approach and the structural approach may be coined in terms of a trade off between behavioral and statistical assumptions. For this reason, and unless one has very specific knowledge of the true data generating process, it is neither possible, nor sensible, to claim which approach to estimation is more flexible. More precisely, I show that structural and IV approaches differ mainly at the level of (i) the compatibility of the underlying models with truly dynamic behavior, (ii) the role of heterogeneity in ability and tastes, (iii) the consideration of post-schooling opportunities, and (iv) the specification (and interpretation) of the Mincer wage equation.

Published abstract reprinted by permission of the copyright owner. Show less

This paper investigates whether the interaction between family background and school tracking affects human capital accumulation. Our a priori view is that more tracking should reinforce the role of parental privilege, and thereby reduce equality of opportunity. Compared to the current literature, which focuses on early outcomes, such as test scores at 13 and 15, we look at later outcomes, including literacy, dropout rates, college enrolment, employability and earnings. While we do not confirm previous results that tracking reinforces family background effects on literacy, we do confirm our view when looking at educational attainment and labour market outcomes. When looking at early wages, we find that parental background effects are stronger when tracking starts earlier. We reconcile the apparently contrasting results on literacy, educational attainment and earnings by arguing that the signalling role of formal education - captured by attainment - matters more than actual skills - measured by literacy - in the early stages of labour market experience.

Published abstract reprinted by permission of the copyright owner. Show less

We develop a dynamic discrete choice model of training choice, employment and wage growth, allowing for job mobility, in a world where wages depend on firm-worker matches, as well as experience, and tenure and jobs take time to locate. We estimate this model on a large administrative panel data set which traces labour market transitions, mobility across firms and wages from the end of statutory schooling. We use the model to evaluate the life-cycle return to apprenticeship training and find that on average the costs outweigh the benefits; however for those who choose to train the returns are positive. We then use our model to consider the long-term lifecycle effects of two reforms: One is the introduction of an Earned Income Tax Credit in Germany, and the other is a reform to Unemployment Insurance. In both reforms we find very significant impacts of the policy on training choices and on the value of realised matches, demonstrating the importance of considering such longer term implications.

A later version of this paper is indexed at TD/TNC 99.632.

Published abstract reprinted by permission of the copyright owner. Show less

We estimate short, medium, and long-run individual labor market effects of training programs for unemployed by following program participation on a monthly basis over a ten-year period. Since analyzing the effectiveness of training over such a long period is impossible with experimental data, we use an administrative database compiled for evaluating German training programs. Based on matching estimation adapted to the various issues that arise in this particular context, we find a clear positive relation between the effectiveness of the programs and the unemployment rate over time.

Published abstract reprinted by permission of the copyright owner. Show less

In this paper, I make use of data from the 2000 follow-up of the National Education Longitudinal Survey (NELS) post-secondary education transcript files to extend what is known about the value of education at community colleges. I examine the effects of enrollment in community colleges on students’ subsequent earnings. I estimate the effects of credits earned separate from credentials because community colleges are often used as a means for students to engage in study not necessarily leading to a degree or certificate. I find consistent evidence of wage and salary effects of both credits and degrees, especially for women. There is no substantial evidence that enrollment in vocational rather than academic coursework has a particularly beneficial effect, however.

Published abstract reprinted by permission of the copyright owner. Show less

This paper revisits the old question of whether wage growth differs by education level. Do more educated workers invest more than less educated workers in firm specific, sector specific or general human capital? Do they gain more from improved job match? The paper makes both a methodological and a substantive contribution by offering an alternative strategy for separately identifying returns to general experience, sector specific experience, firm tenure, and job match. Our empirical results, based on the Survey of Income and Program Participation, show that overall wage growth is higher for more-educated workers. This reflects higher returns to general experience for college graduates and higher returns to sector experience for high school graduates. Improvements in job match grow monotonically with education.

Published abstract reprinted by permission of the copyright owner. Show less

This paper identifies the types of immigrants that Canada has recruited to foster modern Canadian economic development and assesses how effective Canada has been in recruiting and retaining these required immigrants in the 21st century. Evidence from both ‘balance of trade’ and ‘balance of payments’ exercises indicates that it is difficult to determine if there actually exist positive net inflows of managers and professionals during the 1982-2001 period. The entry of these highly skilled immigrants resulted from a series of distinct labour market policies adopted by Citizenship and Immigration Canada and its predecessor agencies. The paper presents evidence to support that between 1976-1990 a ‘tap on-tap off’ policy admitted skilled immigrants to Canada only if a labour vacancy was anticipated. However, after 1990 tests reveal that the previous year’s economic immigrant admissions determined the contemporary immigrant flows with a 10 month lag. Offsetting this robust admission of economic immigrants in the 1990s was the substantial outflows of previous Canadian immigrants as part of the rising phenomenon of ‘brain circulation’. Of particular note is the large number of highly skilled Chinese who have returned to Hong-Kong after 1997. Given this ‘brain circulation’ and the chronic underutilization of its highly trained immigrants I conclude that Canada’s traditional use of immigrants as an ‘engine of growth’ is very limited in the 21st century and suggest recruitment of foreign graduate students to revitalize the role of immigrants in Canadian development.

Published abstract reprinted by permission of the copyright owner. Show less

Cross-sectional tests of the Jack-of-All-Trades theory of entrepreneurship invariably conclude that accumulation of a balanced skill-mix across different fields of expertise stimulates entrepreneurship. Yet, none of these considers individual unobservable characteristics which may simultaneously determine skill accumulation and occupational choice. Using panel techniques to control for this, I show that gathering expertise across various subjects does not increase the chances of becoming an entrepreneur.

Published abstract reprinted by permission of the copyright owner. Show less

We use British household panel data to explore the wage returns to training incidence and intensity (duration) for 6924 employees. We find these returns differ greatly depending on the nature of the training (general or specific); who funds the training (employee or employer); and the skill levels of the recipient (white or blue collar). Using decomposition analysis, we further conclude that training is positively associated with wage dispersion in Britain and a virtuous circle of wage gains but only for white-collar employees.

Published abstract reprinted by permission of the copyright owner. Show less

This paper studies the relationship between employment and wage structures in West Germany based on the IAB [Institute for Employment Research] employment subsample 1975-1997. It extends the analytical framework of Card and Lemieux (2001) which simultaneously includes skill and age as important dimensions of heterogeneity. After having identified cohort effects in skill wage premia and in the evolution of relative employment measures, we estimate elasticities of substitution between employees in three different skill groups and between those of different age, taking account of the endogeneity of wages and employment. Compared to estimates in the related literature, we find a rather high degree of substitutability. Drawing on the estimated parameters, we simulate the magnitude of wage changes within the respective skill groups that would have been necessary to halve skill-specific unemployment rates in 1997. The required nominal wage reductions range from 8.8 to 12.2% and are the higher the lower the employees’ skill level.

Published abstract reprinted by permission of the copyright owner. Show less