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Two stylised facts of the German labour market are that first, the demand for high-skilled labour has been growing rapidly for a number of years and second, the country is facing a particularly strong demographic change with the expected size of the population decreasing rapidly and the average age of the labour force increasing sharply. This has led to a widely discussed fear of 'labour shortages'. One of the reasons often stated in the public debate is that within a given time period many more old individuals are retiring than young individuals are entering the labour market. Although there is a certain logic in this argument, it is only prima facie convincing because firstly, a change in labour demand could counteract this effect and secondly, it is unclear whether - given labour demand for the occupations people retire from - people retiring from the labour market are normally 'replaced' by young cohorts entering the labour market.

Thirdly, even if the size of a cohort differs between generations, it is by no means clear what the effects on labour supply are as, for example, the participation rates may also differ. [The authors] address these issues from a theoretical and empirical perspective. In the theoretical part [the authors] focus on the relationship between vacancies and unemployment (labour-market tightness) and show that it does not always increase with demographic change. In the empirical part, [the authors] analyse how employment is affected over time by different shares of different age cohorts. [The authors] find no evidence that a higher number of retirees in an occupation leads to a higher demand for younger workers. Instead, to a large extent, retirees seem to be 'replaced', if they are replaced at all, by middle-aged cohorts who change occupations. Thus, [the authors] conclude that the interaction between large retiring cohorts and small entering cohorts within occupations is less direct than is suggested in the public debate.

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The recent and currently fragile economic recovery has not yet been able to create new jobs and the social situation in the [European Union] EU shows little signs of improvement so far. The improved outcomes in the EU labour markets are still at best modest. Employment showed the first signs of stabilising in 2013, with a 0.1 per cent growth in the second half of the year. This analysis also points to an expected increase in poverty levels and a slight improvement in the impact of social protection expenditure in 2013, even if its support effect remains very weak. The situation for households remains serious. The income that households have at their disposal is lagging behind the growth of gross domestic product. It provides also empirical evidence that the crisis at its height had the strongest adverse impact on labour market transitions of men and young people.

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Germany's labor market responded only mildly to the Great Recession. Important factors for this development include the strong economic position due to recent labor market reforms, the crisis affecting mainly export-oriented companies, the extension of short-time work, time buffers due to working time accounts, the behavior of social partners, and automatic stabilizers. We emphasize the important interaction between short-time work and long-term shortages of skilled workers in sectors particularly affected by the crisis. Although Germany's experience is in stark contrast to the United States, we identify and discuss common challenges at the center of the future jobs debate.

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Skilled labor is a key input to the innovation process. A shortage in supply of skilled labor may hence impede innovation activities, resulting in lower productivity gains. While governments are concerned about these likely negative impacts, there is only limited empirical evidence whether and to what extent labor shortage affects innovation activities. The paper addresses this question using panel data from three waves (2017 to 2019) of the German innovation survey. We measure labor shortage by job openings that could not be filled at all, not with the required skills or only with significant delay, distinguishing different skill levels. We analyze whether labor shortage resulted in stopping or abandoning of innovation projects. Endogeneity issues are tackled by instrumental variable estimation techniques. Our results show that innovative firms are more likely to be subject to skill shortage, whereas skill shortage induces the cancelation of innovation projects. Effects are stronger for labor shortage related to professional occupations and less for academic qualifications.

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In this chapter, the matching of human captial and skills to industry and the match between the labour market and skills development are examined. The concept of the 'quiet dilemma', which consists of the dual problem of skilled labour shortages and the over-education of many many university graduates, is discussed. Understanding of the 'quiet dilemma' involves understanding of labour market misconceptions and the notion that a four-year degree is the only way to get ahead. Several solutions to this dilemma are proposed, including providing incentives for students to persue technical and vocational education and training (TVET). A list of high-skill/high-wage occupations are included as an appendix to this chapter.

The book from which this chapter is taken is indexed at TD/TNC 100.51. Individual chapters are indexed from TD/TNC 100.52 to TD/TNC 100.244. Show less

Over the past seven years, the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) workforce has more than doubled. Today some 325,000 workers across a diverse range of occupations and settings support NDIS participants, their families and carers. The essential care and support provided by these workers throughout the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been critical. The strain of the past few years has no doubt been felt by many NDIS workers. This strain, however, goes beyond the impacts of the pandemic to the key challenges facing the NDIS workforce. Many NDIS workers are feeling burnt out. Jobs can be short term with high turnover, with poor conditions and poor career prospects. Workers appear to be leaving NDIS jobs at a faster rate compared to the wider economy. Providers report difficulty finding and keeping skilled and capable workers to effectively support participants. As the scheme matures, there is mounting pressure to attract more workers. Within the next three years to June 2025, an additional 128,000 workers will be needed to fully meet demand. Efforts are needed to improve worker attraction and retention in the NDIS.

Over the course of the NDIS Review we will continue to consider how regulation and market settings (including, pricing and payment settings) can better deliver outcomes for participants and governments while supporting and valuing the contribution of workers to the Scheme. This will include looking at ways to improve market arrangements and support greater investment in capacity building, assistive technology and home modification supports. By reducing reliance on ongoing core supports delivered directly by workers, this could improve outcomes for participants and help reduce growing pressure on the workforce. Ahead of this work, this report presents some practical actions that should be undertaken now to streamline worker screening checks and smooth entry pathways for workers.

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Because there is no explicit general definition of a high-skilled versus low-skilled worker, such categorizations are often arbitrary and sometimes even contradictory. To increase the overall complexity of their economies, and thus boost growth, high-income countries need a much broader variety of abilities than the traditional low- and high-skill dichotomy, which is solely based on a worker's level of schooling. Rather than using the arbitrary education-focused definitions of skill levels, labor mobility schemes should focus on the capabilities needed by employers hiring sectors, including a worker's ability to learn and develop new skills during their employment in the host country. Implementing better quality labor pathways for foreign-born workers with a broad variety of skills would add to the overall economic growth of the receiving countries while also assisting native-born workers with their own realization and potential career advancement.

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This document follows the Agribusiness, Food and Fibre Industries Skills Report [available in VOCEDplus at TD/TNC 149.307], which was produced collaboratively with the assistance of 12 Industry Reference Committees. The Agribusiness, Food and Fibre Industries Skills Report documented the skills and issues that are common across those industries. This document is an attempt to identify how those common issues relate specifically to the Amenity Horticulture, Landscaping, Conservation and Ecosystem Management industries.

Key findings include: (1) The Amenity Horticulture, Landscaping, Conservation and Ecosystem Management industries are going through significant transformation and facing challenges from multiple sources, including natural disasters, global markets, changing consumer taste, technological development and the [Coronavirus Disease 2019] COVID-19 pandemic; (2) The demands for skills, labour and work are likely to grow beyond the current predictions and expectations of the National Skills Commission and other analysis bodies. This points to a lack of analytic data available specifically for this field, including on new and emerging industry sectors and skills, which is expanding as the industry continues to be elevated as a national priority, especially in relation to addressing climate and in recognition of the critical importance of biodiversity and biosecurity to all Australian land and water activities.

The Amenity Horticulture, Landscaping and Conservation and Land Management IRC have identified priorities which they recommend for future consideration, including: the finalisation of the Unit Sector Approach for reviewing the AHC Training Package, and further consideration of the Rural Operations qualifications, including the potential for greater recognition of ecosystem management as a key part of rural activities; evaluation of the Unit Sector Approach for the review of the AHC Training Package; working with other agribusiness, food and fibre industries on research and planning projects to identify and address skills gaps relating to traceability, provenance and blockchain; identifying digital skills needs using the Digital Workforce Capability and vocational education and training (VET) framework currently in development (along with other digital capability frameworks); and working with the Arts and Personal Services Cluster (specifically relating to Tourism and Hospitality) to ensure that food handling, biosecurity, provenance, traceability and other relevant skills are incorporated into their qualifications with the guidance of experts from the Agribusiness, Food and Fibre Industry Cluster.

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This study investigates labour force access to adult education and skills development programs in [British Columbia] BC. The goal of the research is to identify the most effective way for BC's provincial government to increase the skills of the labour force as a means to decrease the impacts of anticipated labour and skills shortages. Using a case study analysis, four policy options are identified, including a Provincial Workplace Training Fund, Training Tax Credits, the [One] Per Cent Law and Adult Basic Education. Each policy option is subsequently evaluated against selected criteria. Evaluation of the policy options leads to a number of recommendations including the simultaneous implementation of two policy alternatives.

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The aged care sector is at a critical juncture. The broad suite of reforms in train for the sector have the potential to make a meaningful difference to the quality of life of older Australians. Reforms that are related to addressing workforce challenges are an integral part of being able to deliver on this goal. It is within this context that the Productivity Commission was asked to examine the relative merits of a policy that would require aged care providers to preference the 'direct' employment of aged care workers. This study examines the implications of such a policy for aged care consumers, workers and providers respectively. In undertaking this study, the Commission has benefited from strong engagement from a wide range of stakeholders including consumer groups, aged care workers and their representatives, and aged care providers and other businesses involved in the sector.

The study stems from recommendation 87 of the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety (the Royal Commission) that approved providers be required to preference direct employment of workers engaged to provide personal care and nursing services. The recommendation appears intended to assuage concerns that indirect employment could erode the quality of care, accountability for the care provided, and pay and conditions for workers. In responding to the Royal Commission’s final report in 2021, the previous Government determined that this recommendation required further examination. For the purposes of this study, the Productivity Commission has interpreted the term 'direct employment' to apply only to employees directly employed by aged care providers on a permanent, fixed term or casual basis. Under this definition, labour hire, independent contracting and platform work are all categorised as 'indirect employment'.

Findings include that: (1) the use of indirect employment in aged care is already limited; (2) providers rely on the flexibility, specialised skills and additional capacity that agency workers and independent contractors provide; (3) restricting indirect employment would be a retrograde step for older Australians; and (4) aged care workers value the option to work as independent contractors. The recommendation is that a policy to preference direct employment would be detrimental as it would reduce choice and options for care for older Australians, and at the same time, limit the options for care workers who value self-employment and flexible work arrangements. The report recommends that the Australian Government instead expedite the broad reform agenda for aged care to enhance quality and manage any specific risks from indirect employment through a risk-proportionate regulatory framework. In doing so, it should ensure that the development of quality standards and indicators for home care are not unduly delayed.

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