Vocational pathways and post-school transitions from VET delivered to school students

This study was undertaken for the Australian Government Department of Education and examines the long-term education and labour market outcomes of vocational education and training (VET) programs delivered to secondary school students. Studies to date have found mostly positive outcomes for VET programs delivered in schools. However, a major limitation of these studies is that they only measure initial outcomes and are silent on the long-term impacts. The current study addresses this issue by integrating information from three cohorts of the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) to produce a longitudinal dataset with the statistical power to measure long-term effects. This approach involves tracking students from the 2003, 2006 and 2009 LSAY cohorts who did and did not participate in upper-secondary school VET for up to 7 years after school. Outcomes from VET participation are estimated by comparing outcomes for those who did and did not participate in VET, adjusting for differences between the two groups that may also affect outcomes, such as past academic achievement and regional characteristics. Results have been estimated separately for three models of VET delivered to secondary school students: (1) classroom-based VET without workplace learning (WPL); (2) classroom-based VET with a workplace learning component; and (3) apprenticeships/traineeships. Measures of outcomes include high school completion, attainment of a qualification at certificate III or above, full-time employment rates, the expected earnings associated with a job, whether the job is one that the respondent would like as a career, and job satisfaction.

The study addresses key research questions regarding the benefits of school-based VET programs and barriers to participation that, until now, could not be addressed because of data limitations. The first key question is whether there are long-run benefits of school-based VET participation? Previous studies have only examined how VET participation in school affects initial post-secondary pathways, which may not reflect long-run qualification and employment outcomes. Evidence from this study will help to better inform policy on the benefits of school VET programs, including the contribution that workplace learning can make in promoting any long-term benefits. The second key question is whether participation and any benefits vary within the school population, including across different levels of academic achievement, socio-economic background, indigenous status and gender? To the extent that some groups participate and benefit differently, then this study may help identify areas for targeted support. A final question is what are the main factors that explain participation in VET delivered in schools? The answer to this question will help identify possible barriers that could be the target of policy actions.

Key findings are that: (1) participation in upper-secondary VET programs is associated with an increased likelihood of a successful initial transition from school to the labour market, especially for participation in programs with workplace learning (including apprenticeship/traineeships); (2) on average, the initial post-secondary labour market benefits of participation in upper-secondary school VET shrinks over time and are statistically insignificant by the seventh year out from school; (3) long-run benefits from VET participation are found to depend on the initial post-secondary pathway - for those who transit to further study after school, we find that the labour market advantages for VET with workplace learning (including apprentices/trainees) persists to year seven; and for those who transit to the labour market in the year after school, the labour market benefits are short-term only; (4) on average, we find no evidence that the long-run benefits of VET study differ by gender, city/rural locations, indigenous or socio-economic status; and (5) the most influential factors associated with school-based VET participation are post-secondary work/study intentions, the availability/quality of VET programs within the school, and academic achievement (in Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA)). The implications for policy and practice are discussed.

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