Qualifications and the future labour market in Australia: report prepared for the National Training Reform Taskforce

This report examines the future supply of, and requirements for, vocational education and training (VET) qualifications in the Australian labour market from 2006 to 2016. Prepared for the National Training Reform Taskforce, it is intended to inform the next stages of reform of the sector to be considered by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG). The report provides: a projection of the qualifications profile of people in employment in Australia in 2016; estimates of the additional number of qualified people required in the next 10 years to attain the 2016 qualifications profile of employed people; estimates of the supply of people with VET qualifications from 2006 to 2016; estimates of the gap between supply and requirements in the number of people with VET qualifications from 2006 to 2016; and estimates of the additional student contact hours required to meet the shortfall in the number of people with VET qualifications from 2006 to 2016. The report indicates that, from 2006 to 2016, the occupational and qualification composition of employment in Australia is forecast to change in the following ways: employment in Australia will grow more slowly in the coming decade; employment will grow more quickly in higher skilled occupations than in lower skilled occupations; the proportion of the employed workforce with a post-school qualification will increase; in most occupations, more than half the workers will have qualifications; and more workers will have higher level qualifications. The report suggests that, at current levels of supply, there will be a shortfall of 240,000 people with VET qualifications over the 10 years to 2016. The number of net completions will need to increase 1.9 per cent each year over the next decade to overcome the shortfall. Shortfalls are expected at advanced diploma, diploma and certificate III. Surpluses are expected at certificate I, II and IV. Thus to meet requirements both the quantity and distribution of supply of VET qualifications will need to change. The hours of training required will grow faster than the number of people acquiring VET qualifications. The number of training hours will need to increase five per cent per year over the next decade to meet the requirements. The report concludes that, if policy is to attain the 2016 target for the qualifications profile, the VET system will need to expand over the coming decade. Show less