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Four main drivers appear to determine the future of European textiles, clothing and leather (TCL) industries: global competition, the extension of the knowledge base, market changes, and environmental aspects. Using these drivers, three alternative scenarios were developed by this study: (1) ‘globalisation limited’ sees considerable effects from climate change. Rising environmental costs will change the system of global trade and set new priorities for consumers, governments and producers. TCL industries will become more European or even regional under these conditions; (2) ‘Asian dominance - European excellence’ assumes that emerging countries will improve their specialisation in industrial manufacturing and the [European Union] EU will strengthen its technological lead. Production activities will largely disappear from European TCL industries but a great need for technical specialists and natural scientists will emerge; and (3) ‘advanced new Member States’ describes how the EU and low-cost countries among the Member States are going to defend the industrial basis in Europe. Facing the strongly negative effects of globalisation on manufacturing employment (and TCL employment in particular), a comprehensive policy program aims to revive industrial jobs. All three scenarios result in a further decline of employment. The study recommends: developing the knowledge base; fostering innovation strategies; and strengthening regional policies.

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