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This paper aims to study the earnings expectations of first-year students at a French university and to compare them with the observed earnings of young people in the labour market for that same year. One of the original features of this research is that it includes, as explanatory variables, several measurements of cognitive capacities which it might be thought would influence individuals' expected earnings. Furthermore, although many surveys have been made in both developed and developing countries, none has so far been conducted in France as far as [the authors] are aware. This type of enquiry seems all the more important because the French labour market is highly segmented to the disadvantage of young people. The structuring of internal markets relegates young people to the position of outsiders on the labour market, an effect that is further accentuated in times of economic crisis.

The results, even if a slight overestimation is observed (about seven per cent), point to a certain proximity between expected earnings of young people at the start of their careers and actual earnings on the labour market. However, the overestimation strongly increases 10 years later (about 41 per cent). [The authors'] findings also highlight the importance of the environment in which students make their choices about education. Expected earnings are proportionally higher when their parents seem to be involved in the careers guidance, even controlling for the effect of parental socio-economic status. The positive opinion of parents about the orientation or the connection between the discipline and the father's occupation are generally associated with higher earnings. In addition, our results show a strong impact of cognitive variables which are far more significant than variables relating to past educational performances.

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