The Skills Imperative 2035: occupational outlook: long-run employment prospects for the UK: working paper 2c: technical report on sources and methods

This document provides a technical description of the sources and methods used to generate the set of employment projections by industry and occupation presented in the reports from the Nuffield funded research programme - The Skills Imperative 2035: Essential skills for tomorrow's workforce. These projections have been prepared by the Institute for Employment Research (IER) at the University of Warwick and Cambridge Econometrics (CE), on behalf of the Nuffield Foundation. This technical report provides details on the data sources, methods and assumptions used to generate the projections described in Working Paper 2 [available in VOCEDplus at TD/TNC 150.221]. These projections represent the latest in a series of quantitative assessments of the employment prospects in the UK labour market over a 10-15-year horizon. Previously these projections have been funded by the UK Government and published under the Working Futures banner.

The prime focus is on the demand for skills as measured by employment by occupation and qualification, although the supply side is also considered. The prime objective is to provide a benchmark for thinking about the structure of employment in the UK economy in 2035. The results are intended to provide a sound statistical foundation for reflection and debate among all those with an interest in the demand for and supply of skills. The labour market information provided can help to inform policy development and strategy around skills, careers, and employment, for both policy makers and a much wider audience.

This document sets out the methodological approach used to generate the detailed historical employment Database, as well as the models and procedures used to produce the projections. This includes information about the main data sources used, as well as the working assumptions adopted. It also sets out the limitations of the estimates produced and comparisons with official estimates.

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