The impact of employment changes on poverty in 2020

This report is concerned with the impact of future changes in employment structures and pay patterns on income inequality and poverty. Using the latest Working Futures projections of employment, together with data from the Family Resources Survey, this report considers the implications for poverty and inequality of a range of possible changes to the structure of employment and pay. The effects of these changes on the distribution of personal and household income are simulated and there is a detailed exploration of the links between the changes in the labour market and their implications for inequality and poverty. The report findings suggest that: relative poverty and inequality are set to rise by 2020 as a result of changes to the structure of employment and future changes in the tax and benefit system; absolute poverty is likely to be affected very little by those changes; and to mitigate increases in poverty and inequality, a very precise and targeted approach to policy, focusing on households in poverty, will be required.

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