The scramble for jobs: who will be employed when the music stops?

The number of people receiving Jobseeker payments (formerly Newstart Allowance) and Youth Allowance (unemployed) has doubled since March 2020, from 800,000 to 1,600,000. They are likely to be joined by many of the 165,000 employees working zero hours for economic reasons (stood down) in July 2020 as the JobKeeper subsidies are phased out. If we are to meet this challenge and avoid the legacy of prolonged unemployment that followed previous recessions, employment services and training will have to scale-up dramatically and adjust to the new conditions. Unemployment is expected to rise to 10 per cent by December 2020 and still sit at 8.5 per cent a year later. As the lockdowns ease and the labour market adjusts from a stay-at-home economy to a new equilibrium, a cruel game of 'musical chairs' will play out as more people compete for fewer jobs. The stakes are high for those already disadvantaged in the labour market, who could be pushed to the end of a much longer queue. Four groups are especially at risk: (1) The 660,000 people on unemployment payments for over 12 months, most of whom are over 40 years old; (2) The 880,000 'new' recipients since September 2019, half of whom are under 35 years. Most have either just entered the paid workforce or have lost casual employment; and (3) Many of the 165,000 people stood down in their employment (often on the JobKeeper Payment) who are likely to be made redundant as that payment is wound down; Women, who have been disproportionately affected by job losses in services. Those re-entering the paid workforce after full-time caring are especially at risk.

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