Impact of ageing on curative health care workforce: country report Slovakia

Demographic trends and ageing are one of the main factors influencing future trends in the socioeconomic development of all European countries included in significant changes in labour market structure. This country report provides information and an overview about the current situation of the Slovak health care system, utilization and expected needs of workforce and its structure over the next decade. The main driver of expected changes in demand and utilization represented by Neujobs tailor made demographic projection by friendly and tough scenarios. The estimation of labour demand in the health sector is based on a utilization method and the main focus is related to estimation of demand for labour at sector 86 - human health activities. Together with estimated labour supply based on topdown approach the authors will estimate expected match/shortage of health related occupations, especially nursing care personnel and doctors.

The report shows, that despite the expectations about future increased demand for care, a declining scenario still exists, although it is less likely. Better utilization of health care services, shortened hospitalizations and technical progress could lead to a decline in the required workforce. On the other hand, the expected level of public expenditure is still higher than nowadays. When considering also the replacement demand, a significant shortage of doctors and nurses was illustrated in following years across all scenarios. Low wage competitiveness of the Slovak health sector together with simplification of specialist movement due to the implementation of the Bologna process in Europe and a relatively low number of graduates will lead to tension in providing health care services. Most probably, the future development will lead to increased employment in selected sectors together in line with expected increase of expenditures.

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