COVID-19: potential consequences for education, training, and skills

A considerable and rapidly growing volume of reports on the potential impacts of [Coronavirus Disease 2019] COVID-19 from international and national government agencies, think tanks, management consultancies, and academics is now hitting our in-boxes and desks. What follows is a very modest addition to this burgeoning literature. A version of the paper has been prepared for the 4 Nations College Alliance 'College of the Future' Commission, and what follows is a slightly amended version. It does not attempt to provide a comprehensive analysis, or to duplicate what others have already said. Its main focus is on youth unemployment and wider transitions into work, but it also has some thoughts on adult unemployment and re-training.

This paper is founded upon a basic assumption - namely that if the public money available across all four UK nations to support measures around skills and unemployment is finite, then targeting those most at risk and defining which kinds of measures are the most cost-effective will be important. The information already available (Wilson et al, 2020) suggests that we know reasonably well which sectors, occupations, localities and kinds of people will most likely be hardest hit by the coming recession. The main issues will be deciding: (1) What groups to prioritise, which interventions will work best and most cost-effectively, and also which can be delivered to swiftly address the immediate problems liable to emerge as the furlough scheme is wound down and school, college and university leavers hit a disrupted labour market; and (2) What additional measures will be needed in the longer term as some groups experience extended periods of unemployment.

Excerpt from publication. Show less