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As the United States takes action to contain [Coronavirus Disease 2019] COVID-19 transmissions and 'flatten the curve', physical distancing measures are the first line of defense - and they have profoundly altered the rhythms of everyday life. Countless neighborhood businesses have been shuttered, trips to the grocery store have to be carefully planned, and many parents are working remotely from home with their kids in the background. As of March 30, three-quarters of Americans were living under state or local stay-at-home mandates or advisories - and the economic fallout has been swift and dramatic. Discretionary spending has taken a hit, consumer confidence has been shaken, and small businesses are struggling. While there is great uncertainty about the depth and duration of this downturn, recent McKinsey research outlined multiple scenarios that vary depending on the spread of the virus and the public-health response as well as the effectiveness of policy in mitigating economic damage.

We estimate the number of jobs that may be affected by stay-at-home and physical-distancing measures in a two-step process. First, we analyze all 804 occupations tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Using the US Department of Labor's O*NET data on the characteristics of each occupation, we assigned each one a vulnerability rating of low, medium, or high. We defined low-vulnerability jobs as those that are deemed essential (such as doctors), require no physical proximity to others (that is, can be done remotely), or are likely to guarantee pay even if workers are furloughed (such as K-12 public-school teachers). We assume these workers continue to earn their full income continue during shutdowns. Medium-vulnerability jobs (such as those in manufacturing) require workers to be in proximity to co-workers but not the public; we assume that shutdowns will affect 30 to 50 per cent of these jobs. Finally, high-vulnerability jobs are nonessential roles that involve exposure to the public; we assume that shutdowns affect 70 to 90 per cent of these jobs.

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