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This paper studies the school-to-work transition in the UK with the aim of achieving a richer understanding of individuals’ trajectories in the five years after reaching school leaving age. By applying the technique of ‘optimal matching’ on data from 1991 to 2008, [the authors] group individuals’ trajectories post-16, and identify a small number of distinct transition patterns. [The] results suggest that while nine out of 10 young people have generally positive experiences post-16, the remaining individuals exhibit a variety of histories that might warrant policy attention. [The authors] assess the extent to which characteristics at age 16 can predict which type of trajectory a young person will follow. [The] analysis shows that, despite the apparent heterogeneity, virtually all at-risk trajectories are associated with a relatively small set of key ‘risk factors’: early pregnancy; low educational attainment and self-confidence; and disadvantaged family background. These characteristics are known to be strongly correlated across individuals and raise concerns about the degree of socioeconomic polarisation in the transition from school to work. Show less

[The authors] investigate young people's labour market transitions beyond compulsory schooling and, in particular, the dynamic effects of early experiences. [The authors] use a UK longitudinal survey to model transitions between four states: employment, unemployment, education and a residual category made up of those neither in education nor economically active. The results provide new evidence on the causal impact of prior experience and show the importance of distinguishing between unemployment and inactivity among non-students. A simulation exercise illustrates the evaluation potential of the model and provides some clues for the design of interventions aimed at improving young people's employment prospects.

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