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Wages and occupational flexibilities as determinants of the interactive QuBe labour market model: a methodological report on the basic projection of the 3rd wave of the BIBB-IAB qualifications and occupational field projections

The [Federal Institute for Vocational Training/German Institute for Employment Research] BIBB-IAB qualification and... Show more
The [Federal Institute for Vocational Training/German Institute for Employment Research] BIBB-IAB qualification and occupational field projections describe the labour demand and supply development until 2030. This discussion paper includes the underlying data, methods and assumptions of the third wave of the long-term BIBB-IAB qualification and occupational field projections ([Qualifikation und Beruf in der Zukunft] QuBe project). Taken into account in the present third wave was the increased future net immigration as a consequence of the European economic crisis. In addition, empirically founded dynamic interaction processes between labour supply and demand by qualifications and occupations have been modelled for the first time. On the demand side, for example, the available occupation-specific labour supply in persons and hours is taken into account when determining wages for the respective occupations. On the supply side, the advantages of the two hitherto applied supply models BIBB-FIT and BIBB-DEMOS have been combined in one supply model and the wage elasticity coinciding with occupational flexibility has been estimated at the same time.
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Authors: Maier, Tobias; Zika, Gerd; Monnig, Anke; Wolter, Marc Ingo ... [+] Show more

Date: 2014

Geographic subjects: Germany; Europe

Resource type: Report, paper or authored book

Series name: Wissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere

Subjects: Labour market; Employment; Skills and knowledge ... [+] Show more
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Export induced qualification needs

Foreign markets determine success and failure of those industries that have become reliant on foreign demand, impai... Show more
Foreign markets determine success and failure of those industries that have become reliant on foreign demand, impair the demand for employment and invoke changes in occupational fields and qualification requirements. This paper aims to disclose the direct and indirect influence of major trading partners on Germany's production, employment, and qualification needs. It projects the effects by using the dynamic macro-econometric input-output model INFORGE. Industrialized economies are the most important determinants for employment in the manufacturing industries. Business-related services are highly indirectly affected. The growth impact of industrialized nations is declining while [Brazil, Russia, India and China] BRICS nations are gaining momentum. A shift towards higher qualification needs can be observed.
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Authors: Maier, Tobias; Monnig, Anke; Zika, Gerd

Conference name: International Conference on Applied Economics

Date: 2013

Geographic subjects: Germany; Europe

Resource type: Article

Journal title: Procedia economics and finance

Subjects: Qualifications; Skills and knowledge; Economics ... [+] Show more
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Despite a growing population, shortages remain in the area of skilled tasks

The fourth wave of qualifications and occupational field projections prepared by the Federal Institute for Vocation... Show more
The fourth wave of qualifications and occupational field projections prepared by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) provide a summary of the German labour market's expected development up to 2035. New challenges are being presented, particularly against the background of the massive refugee migration in 2015. The direct effects of this initial rise in the population figures include higher levels of state spending and changes in the demand for housing and educational services. However, labour supply will only grow with some delay. If current educational and employment patterns continue and working times do not increase, medium-term population growth will not be sufficient to avoid long-term shortages in the area of skilled tasks. This especially affects persons who have completed vocational education and training. On the contrary, in the area of high qualifications, the labour supply shows a stronger long-term increase than demand for skilled workers for complex tasks and highly complex tasks.
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Authors: Maier, Tobias; Zika, Gerd; Wolter, Marc Ingo; Kalinowski, Michael ... [+] Show more

Date: 2016

Geographic subjects: Germany; Europe

Resource type: Report, paper or authored book

Series name: BIBB report

Subjects: Skills and knowledge; Demographics; Migration ... [+] Show more

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Wages and occupational flexibilities as determinants of the interactive QuBe labour market model: a methodological report on the basic projection of the 3rd wave of the BIBB-IAB qualifications and occupational field projections

Export induced qualification needs

Despite a growing population, shortages remain in the area of skilled tasks