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This paper examines how young people's early transitions into the labour market have changed between cohorts born in 1958, 1970, 1980, and 1990. [The authors] use sequence analysis to characterise transition patterns and identify three distinct pathways in all cohorts. An 'Entering the Labour Market' group has declined significantly in size (from 91 per cent in the earliest cohort, to 37 per cent in the most recent), an 'Accumulating Human Capital' group has grown in its place (from 4 per cent to 51 per cent), but also a 'Potential Cause for Concern' group has grown alongside this, reaching 12 per cent in the most recent cohort. These trends appear to reflect behavioural rather than compositional changes. Females and those who are from a non-white ethnic background have gone from being more likely to be in the 'Potential Cause for Concern' group, to being less likely. Coming from a low socio-economic status background has remained a strong predictor of having a transition of this type across all four cohorts. These early transitions are important, not least since we show they are highly predictive of longer-term outcomes.

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In 2013 the Department for Business Innovation and Skills commissioned a consortium of organisations including Kantar Public (formerly TNS BMRB), the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), Alphaplus and the Learning and Work Institute (formerly NIACE) to conduct the longitudinal survey of adult learners. The aims were to enhance understanding of learners' experiences of English and maths Skills for Life funded courses delivered by colleges and look at how learners' skills progress during their course and in the year after. The survey also explored learners' broader economic outcomes, learning journeys and soft outcomes such as confidence in day to day life. Learners were interviewed at 3 waves in their learning journey. These were: at the start of the course; soon after the course ended; and one year after the course ended. Each interview included tests developed for the study to assess learners' reading and writing or numeracy skills. Findings from these interviews are included in the documents. The technical report and local authority comparison report for this study are included.

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[The authors] investigate young people's labour market transitions beyond compulsory schooling and, in particular, the dynamic effects of early experiences. [The authors] use a UK longitudinal survey to model transitions between four states: employment, unemployment, education and a residual category made up of those neither in education nor economically active. The results provide new evidence on the causal impact of prior experience and show the importance of distinguishing between unemployment and inactivity among non-students. A simulation exercise illustrates the evaluation potential of the model and provides some clues for the design of interventions aimed at improving young people's employment prospects.

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This paper presents the final economic results of the UK Employment Retention and Advancement (ERA) programme. ERA's distinctive combination of post-employment advisory support and financial incentives was designed to help low-income individuals who entered work sustain employment and advance in the labour market. ERA targeted three groups. ERA produced short-term earnings gains for two lone parent target groups. However, these effects generally faded after the programme ended, largely because the control group caught up with the ERA group. For the New Deal 25 Plus target group (mostly long term unemployed men), ERA produced modest but sustained increases in employment and earnings.

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This report presents findings on the implementation and early effects of Britain’s Employment Retention and Advancement (ERA) demonstration, which is being evaluated through a large-scale randomised control trial. Aimed at helping low-income individuals sustain employment and progress in work, ERA offers a combination of job coaching and financial incentives to participants once they are working. It is administered by Jobcentre Plus in six regions: East Midlands, London, North East England, North West England, Wales, and Scotland. The initial results, covering individuals’ first 12 months in ERA, are encouraging. Despite early operational difficulties, ERA has had a number of positive effects. Across various types of people and places, it increased the receipt of services and training for working customers, increased participants’ average earnings, and produced some reductions in their benefit receipt. Still, it is much too soon to draw firm conclusions about ERA’s effectiveness. Progression in work is a gradual process that can take several years to unfold. Furthermore, many ERA customers were just entering or preparing for work during the first follow-up year, and none could have yet taken full advantage of the programme’s offer of up to two years of in-work guidance and incentives.

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This report presents the final results on the implementation, impacts, costs, and economic benefits of the UK Employment Retention and Advancement (ERA) programme. ERA's distinctive combination of post-employment advisory support and financial incentives was designed to help low-income individuals who entered work sustain employment and advance in the labour market. Launched in 2003 in selected Jobcentre Plus offices, ERA targeted three groups: (1) unemployed lone parents receiving Income Support and volunteering for the New Deal for Lone Parents welfare-to-work programme; (2) lone parents working part time and receiving Working Tax Credit; and (3) long-term unemployed people aged 25 or older receiving Jobseeker's Allowance who were required to participate in the New Deal 25 Plus welfare-to-work programme. The effectiveness of the programme was evaluated using a random assignment research design. The evaluation found that ERA produced short-term earnings gains for the two lone parent target groups. The early gains resulted from increases in the proportion of participants who worked full time (at least 30 hours per week). However, these effects generally faded after the programme ended, largely because the control group caught up with the ERA group. More impressive were the results for the long-term unemployed participants (mostly men) in the New Deal 25 Plus target group. For them, ERA produced modest but sustained increases in employment and substantial and sustained increases in earnings. These positive effects emerged after the first year and were still evident at the end of a five-year follow-up period. The earnings gains were accompanied by lasting reductions in benefits receipt. ERA proved cost-effective for this group from the perspectives of the participants themselves, the Government budget, and society as a whole.

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The 2003 and 2011 Skills for Life surveys of the general adult population revealed that while the proportion of adults showing literacy skills of Level 2 standard and above had increased, the level of progress at the lower end of the scale was disappointing and numeracy skills appeared to have shown a small decline. Reform plans for the further education and skills system developed in 2011 included expanding the Skills for Life programmes to offer free courses to enable adults to improve their basic literacy and numeracy skills to English and maths GCSE/Level 2.

This report describes a randomised control trial (RCT) into the relative effectiveness of face-to-face compared to blended learning for adult English and maths learning, i.e. learning that makes significant pedagogic use of information and communications technology (ICT). The RCT was part of a government initiated programme of research into adult English and maths. Its primary aim was to assess the impact of delivery mode on skills at the time of course completion. Secondary outcomes were identified as longer-term attainment, confidence with English and maths, labour market outcomes and subjective well-being. The report describes the RCT design decisions and implementation details, and provides an assessment of how the trial worked.

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This paper examines the effect of lifelong learning on women's employment and wages in the United Kingdom. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey, a variant of the mover-stayer model is developed in which hourly wages are either taken from a stationary distribution (movers) or are closely related to the hourly wage one year earlier (stayers). The model allows for individual-specific effects through the inclusions of a fixed number of discrete mass points and also addresses the potential endogeneity of lifelong learning decisions. Once employment effects are taken into account, all forms of lifelong learning show substantial returns.

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This paper examines the effect of lifelong learning on men's employment and wages. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey, a variant of the mover-stayer model is developed in which hourly wages are either taken from a stationary distribution (movers) or are closely related to the hourly wage one year earlier (stayers). Mover-stayer status is not observed and we therefore model wages using an endogenous switching regression, extended to take account of non-random selection into employment. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood, using generalised residuals to correct for possible endogeneity of lifelong learning decisions. The results show modest effects significant at a 10 per cent level for men who undertake lifelong learning without upgrading their educational status and more powerful and significant effects for those who do upgrade their status. For the latter, the influence of lifelong learning on employment prospects is an important influence on the overall return.

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Traineeships are an education and training programme that provide young people aged 16-24 in the UK with an intensive period of work experience and work preparation training, as well as offering them support in improving their English and maths to give them the best opportunity of entering an apprenticeship or employment. The first evaluation report was published in March 2015 [available in VOCEDplus at TD/TNC 119.925] and the second in July 2017 [available in VOCEDplus at TD/TNC 129.180].

This report estimates the impact of participating in a traineeship. It forms part of a wider evaluation of the traineeships programme. The evaluation includes the following strands: surveys of trainees, employers and providers; qualitative provider case studies to build up an in-depth picture of implementation; and an analysis of national administrative data to estimate the impact of traineeships. This report is based on the analysis of national administrative data and estimates the effect of participating in a traineeship on the three intended outcomes of progress into an apprenticeship, further learning or employment. The impact is estimated by comparing the outcomes observed for those participating in traineeships against an estimate of their expected outcomes if they had not participated in the programme. Traineeships were introduced in August 2013 and the analysis in this report focuses on the cohort of young people who started a traineeship in the 2013/14 academic year. The results presented in this report are therefore specific to participants in 2013/14. A number of changes to traineeships have been made since the policy was introduced, which may have had an impact on the overall effectiveness of the programme.

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