Methodological approaches for projecting completion rates for apprentices and trainees

This technical paper provides an evaluation of three alternative methodological approaches for calculating completion rate projections for apprentices and trainees. Projected rates are calculated for recently commencing cohorts because many contracts are still active, and the actual completion rate is not yet known. Completion rate projections were calculated for cohorts commencing in 2013, 2014, and 2015, and evaluated against actual completion rates for these cohorts.

All three methods generated projections within five percentage points of actual completion rates. However, the work revealed differences in the consistency of error rates, data requirements, and the timeliness with which projections could be generated for new cohorts.

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