Too true to be good: some thoughts on the 'high skills vision', and on where policy is really taking us

This paper seeks to provide a set of three scenarios for the year 2015 (of which a high skills society is but one), and then see where current policy trajectories might lead in terms of these different projections of what the future might look like. The value of this heuristic device, it will be argued, is that it presents policies as courses of action and choice that become set (path dependency), thereby offering access to certain options while excluding many others. One of the aims of adopting this device is to make it clear where it can be argued current government policies are...  [+] Show more

This paper seeks to provide a set of three scenarios for the year 2015 (of which a high skills society is but one), and then see where current policy trajectories might lead in terms of these different projections of what the future might look like. The value of this heuristic device, it will be argued, is that it presents policies as courses of action and choice that become set (path dependency), thereby offering access to certain options while excluding many others. One of the aims of adopting this device is to make it clear where it can be argued current government policies are leading England and what the consequences of this trajectory and its associated destination are liable to be.

The first section outlines three possible scenarios for the year 2015. The direction of current vocational education and training (VET) policies and of other factors that it is sometimes adduced will lead towards a high skills vision are reviewed. The rate and direction of change they are liable to deliver is matched against the demands/achievements outlined in the three scenarios, and some predictions made about where current policy trajectories will lead. The final section offers some brief thoughts about the role of the research community in trying to shift policy trajectories upwards.

Edited excerpts from publication.