Labour shortages in skilled trades: the best guestimate?

Recognizing the importance of the issue of labour shortages in skilled trades for the Canadian economy, [Certified General Accountants Association of Canada] CGA-Canada sees it timely to critically examine the magnitude of labour shortages experienced in skilled trades in the recent past, and to analyze the prospects of achieving reliable estimates of the shortage situations that may occur in the near future. To that end, this paper begins with a brief overview of main characteristics of the workforce engaged in skilled trades. This is followed by the analysis of labour shortages experienced by five prevailing skilled trades in five Canadian provinces in the past decade and an illustration of the sensitivity of estimates of future labour shortages to some basic or encoded assumptions. Furthermore, [the authors] critically assess the age structure of the trades labour force, and educational and labour mobility barriers as possible factors contributing to labour shortages. The paper concludes with highlights of the more salient aspects of [the authors'] contentions.

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