Higher education to 2030: volume 1: demography

Demographic changes increasingly shape social policies as most OECD populations are ageing and include more migrants and ‘minorities’. Japan and Korea have already started to see their enrolments in tertiary education decline, but other countries like Turkey and Mexico can still expect a boom. Drawing on trend data and projections, this book takes an in-depth look at these important questions from both a qualitative and quantitative standpoint. Issues covered include the impact of demographic changes on student enrolment, educational attainment, academic staff and policy choices. Particular attention is given to how access policies determine the demographics of tertiary education, notably by examining access to higher education for disabled and migrant students. The book covers most OECD countries, illustrating the analysis with specific examples from France, Japan, Korea and the United States. This book is the first volume in the ‘Higher education to 2030’ series, which takes a forward-looking approach to analysing the impact of various contemporary trends on tertiary education systems. Two further volumes will examine the effects of technology and globalisation, and a fourth will present scenarios for the future of higher education systems.

Published abstract.

The chapters are as follows: Are long-term demographic forecasts possible?: turning points and trends / Herve Le Bras; What is the impact of demography on higher education systems?: a forward-looking approach for OECD countries / Stephan Vincent-Lancrin; Demography and higher education: the impact on the age structure of staff and human capital formation / Frans Willekens; Back to the future?: the academic professions in the 21st century / Jurgen Enders and Christine Musselin; Student enrolments and graduation trends in the OECD area: what can we learn from international statistics? / Ulrich Teichler and Sandra Burger; Access to post-secondary education in the United States: past, present, and future perspectives / Eugene Anderson and Bryan Cook; The future of higher education in the context of a shrinking student population: policy challenges for Japan and Korea / Akiyoshi Yonezawa and Terri Kim; Adapting higher education to the needs of disabled students: developments, challenges and prospects / Serge Ebersold; Immigration and access to tertiary education: integration or marginalisation? / Francisco Marolejo, Sean Manley-Casimir and Stephan Vincent-Lancrin; The reversal of gender inequalities in higher education: an ongoing trend / Stephan Vincent-Lancrin.

Volume two is indexed at TD/TNC 98.698.

Demographic changes increasingly shape social policies as most OECD populations are ageing and include more migrants and ‘minorities’. Japan and Korea have already started to see their enrolments in tertiary education decline, but other countries like Turkey and Mexico can still expect a boom. Drawing on trend data and projections, this book takes an in-depth look at these important questions from both a qualitative and quantitative standpoint. Issues covered include the impact of demographic changes on student enrolment, educational attainment, academic staff and policy choices. ...  [+] Show more